DFS Lineup: Week 16
Tyler Orginski @TOrginski
DFS Lineup: Week 16
Best Picks in Draft Kings Cash Games
I will be addressing the Draft Kings main slate for cash games. Cash games include head to head matchups, 50/50’s and double-ups.
In this article, DVOA will be frequently referenced. DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
Quarterback
Mitchell Trubisky vs. 49ers’ ($6,300 DK)
- 49ers allow 20.3 DK points to QBs per game this season
- In 3 of the last 4 games, 49ers have allowed a QB1
- 49ers have allowed 2+ passing TDs in 11 of 14 games
- Injuries have riddled the 49ers’ secondary
- Trubisky offers additional upside with his legs
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Tampa Bay ($9,000 DK)
- Tampa Bay’s run defense comes in at 30th DVOA and 25th yards allowed per carry
- In 6 straight games, Zeke has at least 100 yards from scrimmage and 25 touches
- Tampa Bay gives up 30.4 DK points to RBs per game this season
- Tampa Bay has allowed more RB touchdowns (21) than any team in football
- Cowboys have 27.5 implied points, sixth highest on the slate
Nick Chubb vs. Bengals ($7,300 DK)
- Bengals run defense comes in at 28th DVOA and 23rd yards allowed per carry
- Nick Chubb is PFF’s No. 2 RB among 58 qualifiers. He leads the NFL in yards after contact per attempt. No. 1 in Elusive Rating. (@adamlevitan)
- The Bengals have allowed the second most RB touchdowns (20) in the NFL
- Since the Hyde trade, Chubb has seen 90% of the Browns RB carries, and the Bengals face an average of 23.8 RB carries per game
- The Bengals give up DK points (32.2) to RBs, more than any other team
Wide Receivers
Robert Woods vs. Cardinals ($6,600)
- Since Kupp went down, Woods has seen a steady target share of 11 – 8 – 13 – 9
- Woods plays in the slot and will avoid Patrick Peterson
- Cardinals slot corner Budda Baker has allowed 46/57 passing for 479 yards and 2 TDs on coverage this season
- The Rams 29.25 implied point total is the second highest on the slate
Robby Anderson vs. Packers ($4,500 DK)
- Anderson has 18 targets since Darnold returned in Week 14
- The Packers have allowed the most receiving touchdowns (10) to opposing teams WR1
- Anderson’s average depth of target with Enunwa off the field is 19.7 yards (Enunwa is out)
- Green Bay is allowing 41.6 DK points per game to opposing WRs this season
Curtis Samuel vs. Falcons ($4,500 DK)
- Falcons pass defense comes in at 30th DVOA and 21st yards allowed per pass
- Over the last 3 weeks, Samuel has seen 23 targets and 93.6% of the offensive snaps
- Curtis Samuel is an elite after the catch threat. The Panthers will feed him underneath targets to get him into space, boosting his floor
- This preseason, Taylor Heinicke‘s favorite receiver was Curtis Samuel who totaled a 25% target market share and a 38% yardage market share when he was under center. (@ScottBarrettDFB)
Tight End
Evan Engram vs. Colts ($4,600 DK)
- Engram has gone 11-152 on 17 targets in the two games without Odell Beckham Jr. this season
- Colts allow 14.8 DK points per game to the TE this season
- Engram has played 13 games without Beckham in his career, averaging 4.6 receptions for 55 yards on 8 targets per game
- The Colts allow 55.8% of their receiving TDs to come from TEs, 1st in the league
Flex
Elijah McGuire vs. Packers ($4,700 DK)
- McGuire has 21 and 20 touches for 83 and 71 yards over the last two weeks (4 targets in each game)
- Packers run defense comes in at 29th DVOA and 17th yards allowed per carry
- The Packers have allowed a top 24 RB in all but 2 games this season
- Packers have placed starting nose tackle Kenny Clark on Injured Reserve. Pro Football Focus grades Clark as the #8 interior defensive lineman
D/ST
Patriots vs Bills ($2,500 DK)
- Bills implied total is 13.5 points
- Allen has thrown 4 interceptions in his last 3 games
- Bills will struggle on the road in December at Foxborough