DFS Lineup: Week 16

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Tyler Orginski @TOrginski

DFS Lineup: Week 16

Best Picks in Draft Kings Cash Games

I will be addressing the Draft Kings main slate for cash games. Cash games include head to head matchups, 50/50’s and double-ups.

In this article, DVOA will be frequently referenced. DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.

Quarterback

Mitchell Trubisky vs. 49ers’ ($6,300 DK)

• 49ers allow 20.3 DK points to QBs per game this season
• In 3 of the last 4 games, 49ers have allowed a QB1
• 49ers have allowed 2+ passing TDs in 11 of 14 games
• Injuries have riddled the 49ers’ secondary
• Trubisky offers additional upside with his legs

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott vs. Tampa Bay ($9,000 DK)

• Tampa Bay’s run defense comes in at 30th DVOA and 25th yards allowed per carry
• In 6 straight games, Zeke has at least 100 yards from scrimmage and 25 touches
• Tampa Bay gives up 30.4 DK points to RBs per game this season
• Tampa Bay has allowed more RB touchdowns (21) than any team in football
• Cowboys have 27.5 implied points, sixth highest on the slate

Nick Chubb vs. Bengals ($7,300 DK)

• Bengals run defense comes in at 28th DVOA and 23rd yards allowed per carry
• Nick Chubb is PFF’s No. 2 RB among 58 qualifiers. He leads the NFL in yards after contact per attempt. No. 1 in Elusive Rating. (@adamlevitan)
• The Bengals have allowed the second most RB touchdowns (20) in the NFL
• Since the Hyde trade, Chubb has seen 90% of the Browns RB carries, and the Bengals face an average of 23.8 RB carries per game
• The Bengals give up DK points (32.2) to RBs, more than any other team

Wide Receivers

Robert Woods vs. Cardinals ($6,600)

• Since Kupp went down, Woods has seen a steady target share of 11 – 8 – 13 – 9
• Woods plays in the slot and will avoid Patrick Peterson
• Cardinals slot corner Budda Baker has allowed 46/57 passing for 479 yards and 2 TDs on coverage this season
• The Rams 29.25 implied point total is the second highest on the slate

Robby Anderson vs. Packers ($4,500 DK)

• Anderson has 18 targets since Darnold returned in Week 14
• The Packers have allowed the most receiving touchdowns (10) to opposing teams WR1
• Anderson’s average depth of target with Enunwa off the field is 19.7 yards (Enunwa is out)
• Green Bay is allowing 41.6 DK points per game to opposing WRs this season

Curtis Samuel vs. Falcons ($4,500 DK)

• Falcons pass defense comes in at 30th DVOA and 21st yards allowed per pass
• Over the last 3 weeks, Samuel has seen 23 targets and 93.6% of the offensive snaps
• Curtis Samuel is an elite after the catch threat. The Panthers will feed him underneath targets to get him into space, boosting his floor
• This preseason, Taylor Heinicke‘s favorite receiver was Curtis Samuel who totaled a 25% target market share and a 38% yardage market share when he was under center. (@ScottBarrettDFB)

Tight End

Evan Engram vs. Colts ($4,600 DK)

• Engram has gone 11-152 on 17 targets in the two games without Odell Beckham Jr. this season
• Colts allow 14.8 DK points per game to the TE this season
• Engram has played 13 games without Beckham in his career, averaging 4.6 receptions for 55 yards on 8 targets per game
• The Colts allow 55.8% of their receiving TDs to come from TEs, 1st in the league

Flex

Elijah McGuire vs. Packers ($4,700 DK)

• McGuire has 21 and 20 touches for 83 and 71 yards over the last two weeks (4 targets in each game)
• Packers run defense comes in at 29th DVOA and 17th yards allowed per carry
• The Packers have allowed a top 24 RB in all but 2 games this season
• Packers have placed starting nose tackle Kenny Clark on Injured Reserve. Pro Football Focus grades Clark as the #8 interior defensive lineman

D/ST

Patriots vs Bills ($2,500 DK)

• Bills implied total is 13.5 points
• Allen has thrown 4 interceptions in his last 3 games
• Bills will struggle on the road in December at Foxborough