From Breakout to Bust

DOMINICK PETRILLO @ENVISIONFF


From Breakout to Bust

 

Every year some players have a season we never expected. Whether it be for the good or bad, it happens.

With this in mind, let us take a look at some of those who had a good season last season who may be in store for regression in 2020. Of course, these players may not fall off a cliff. But based on the previous season, they may be over-drafted. Thereby not bringing back the value you want from them.

 

The Candidates

 

Kenyon Drake (RB)

Depending on where he ends up, this could be a bad call. But no matter where it is, he has not truly proven himself in more than a few games in his career.

Of course, the argument can be made Adam Gase is inept, and he was not given a fair shot under Brian Flores before the trade to Arizona. The first point is not arguable. But the fact Arizona had a scrambling quarterback and not much else healthy in the backfield also did a lot to help Drake explode once he got to the desert.

If he stays with the Cardinals, he could thrive. However, with the contract David Johnson has, they are going to have to use him. This means he will still garner a lot of work. If Johnson can be traded in favor of Drake, we are in like Flynn, but this does not seem like a viable option due to the dead cap the Cardinals would absorb in any transaction on the back.

This means in all bets that Drake might be the one finding a new home. Where could he go and fit into the offense as perfectly as he did in 2019? There is likely no team who truly fits the bill. It is also possible 2019 was just a mirage in a career of mediocrity for Kenyon Drake. It is still to be seen just how good he can be for a full season. He has never received a full workload in the NFL or college. So, it will be important to know if he can hold up to the punishment or not. Until this is determined, I cannot see spending a top-three round pick on him.

 

Mark Ingram (RB, BAL)

A little older than the others on the list, Mark Ingram had 15 touchdowns in 2019. As is stated far too
frequently, touchdowns are the hardest stat to reproduce season over season.

With 10 of these touchdowns coming in the run game on only 202 carries, the number is likely to go down. If Justice Hill or even Gus Edwards starts to show something, the soon to be 31-year old Ingram could see a decline in snap share amongst the backs in Baltimore. This also does not mean a possible increase in pass attempts by MVP Lamar Jackson. With Hollywood Brown being healthy this season to go along with Mark Andrews in the passing game, the five receiving touchdowns could also take a slight hit.

Mark Ingram is not going to become a bad player for fantasy suddenly. But his 15 touchdowns are also not set to duplicate. If this number goes down and his rush stats stay similar, he will disappoint, especially if you are using a fourth or even a third-round pick on him in your drafts.

 

John Brown (WR, BUFF)

John Brown had a solid season in Buffalo. This helped in getting the Bills into the playoffs for sure. But he is not a WR one for an NFL team. This is precisely where some may draft him in 2020. Should the Bills not take a wide receiver round one of the drafts in April.

While we don’t know yet for sure what they will do in the draft, if you have early start-up dynasty drafts or even super early re-draft leagues, make sure not to overdraft him. At best, he will finish as a low-end WR2 in fantasy leagues. This is if everything falls exactly right for him. But with Buffalo likely to take a receiver, the more feasible scenario is that John Brown will become a reliable number two option for Josh Allen. Which means he will be limited to a fantasy WR three in drafts. So, draft accordingly.

 

DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)

Not many players take until their fifth season to breakout. DeVante Parker did just this in 2019. As good a season as he had and the last impression, we had been his dismantling of Stephon Gilmore in Week 17, his value is through the roof.

In a season which was supposed to be an organic tanking for the Dolphins, Parker still compiled 72 receptions for 1,202 yards and nine Td. A lot of this production had to do with the YOLO mentality of Ryan Fitzpatrick, as well as the lack of any run game in Miami. Whether they trade for a player like Todd Gurley or draft someone like Johnathan Taylor, the run game will get better for the Dolphins. It has to.

With Mike Gesicki making progressions in year two in 2019 and the run game getting fixed this offseason, the numbers going to those players have to come from somewhere. That place is likely to be DeVante Parker. While 72 receptions are not a ton, especially for a WR one in an offense, it may not be repeatable. Especially if Gesicki continues his TE nine pace of the final half of last season and if Preston Williams can come back healthy for the 2020 season.

Sure, Parker has leveled up a bit, and he is going to have a good chance to get close to the numbers he had in 2019. But after going in double-digit rounds last season, he is going to go in the top five rounds this season. And this is where it gets a bit tricky.




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