Lou Sherman @loudogsports
Last week turned out to be: Play Christian Kirk and get lucky at defense. This week will be interesting, and I think a lot of it will come down to what you do at RB.
Kyle Allen ($5300) is in play for me this week against an Atlanta defense that we have been attacking all season We might be getting enough value to not need to go down at QB this week, but it is encouraging that Allen reached 300 yards got the first time last week.
Jameis Winston ($6500) threw for 358 yards last week and got a $300 price decrease. The Saints and Bucs are pass funnels so this game could easily blowout. Drew Brees ($6900) on the other side of the ball is also in a good spot, he’s just hard to stack with Michael Thomas ($9900) this week. Tom Brady ($6400) is in a great spot and people think he can’t throw anymore. The Eagles cannot cover WR.
Brian Hill ($4800) has opened up as value with Devonta Freeman being hurt. Hill had 20 carries and a receiving touchdown last week. Carolina has been extremely attackable on the ground and Hill should get some passing work as well.
Josh Jacobs ($6900) is at a great price, in a game where he is a home favorite by 10 points. Jacobs is similar to Marlon Mack where he can (and does) get fed in games in which his team controls. The Raiders are facing the 0-9 Bengals, who struggle against the run, so Jacobs should have no issues here.
Miles Sanders ($4100) value opened up this week when Jay Ajayi got signed on Friday. This signing, along with Jordan Howard’s inability to log a full practice this week, leads me to believe Miles Sanders will get 15 touches or more in this game. If the Eagles are trailing, Sanders should be able to get some receptions and the best way to target the Patriots is with running backs.
Ezekiel Elliot ($9000) is going to have 20+ touches against the Lions, who have given up the most fantasy points to opposing RB in the league.Tevin Coleman ($6100) is in basically the same situation as Jacobs. 10 point favorite lead running back at home. Matt Breida is injured so Tevin should have a clear path to 15+ touches. Alvin Kamara ($7400) should come in as low ownership, but is $2500 cheaper than Michael Thomas if you want to stack with Brees.
Deebo Samuel ($4000). If George Kittle ($7000) and Emmanuel Sanders ($7200) are not back for this game, Samuel is in line to smash value. He’s coming off of an 11 target game in which he went 8/112 with both the above teammates out. Samuel had 7 targets in the game before, so he was already emerging as one of Jimmy G’s favorite targets.
Russell Gage ($3300) should see increase targets with Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman out this week. The Panthers struggle in the slot and I think they will be more focused on containing Julio which could open up a third consecutive 5+ target game for Gage.
Curtis Samuel ($5300) is one of my favorite pivots of the week. DJ Moore ($5900) will be the more common cash play, after 5 consecutive games of at least 8 targets. There is no question that Samuel has a ceiling after scoring 4 TD in the last 4 games, versus 0 for Moore. Samuel has 2 multi-TD games in his career, and they were both done on 5 or less touches. He has at least 6 targets in every game since week 1 and ranks #4 out of all WR in my raw projections this week.
Julio Jones ($7500) has at least 7 targets in every game and could receive more red zone looks with Austin Hooper out for a month. Remember when Julio went 12/300/1 on the Panthers in 2016? Mike Evans ($7400) is number one in my raw projections this week, so it will probably be a Chris Godwin ($7300) game! Either way, you can’t really go wrong with either Bucs WR in Winsotn stacks, and Marshon Lattimore being out should boost them even more. Devante Parker ($4700) has had a solid fantasy season, with either at least 55 yards and/or a TD in every non-Patriot game. He had 5/55/1 on these Bills a few weeks ago and saw 10 targets last week as the #1 option in this offense. Mohamed Sanu ($5100) seems to be a good fit on the Patriots and gets to face the Eagles who give up a 100 yard receiver every week.
Greg Olsen ($3900) does as Greg Olsen does. He still gets targets, and still can have big games. He’s the cheapest way you can stack with Allen, and the Falcons have had trouble containing TE this year. TE is a mess once again this week, so I prefer going low and hoping for a TD, but Olsen provides you with a much better receiving floor than the guys around him in price.
Jared Cook ($4400) is the cheapest way I will be getting a piece of the Saints passing attack this week and he’s coming off of a 10 target game. Ross Dwelley ($3400) will benefit from an absent Kittle once again, as Dwelley was active running routes on Monday and also gets the benefit of the flow chart.
Jamison Crowder ($5700) faces the Redskins in a revenge game this week. Crowder has shown in the past few weeks that he has TD upside to go along with his massive target ceiling, so I like the idea of playing him this week.